A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
